One Foot In, One Foot Out: 2028 Hopefuls Circle the Race but Won’t Jump In
With the first primary votes 15 months away, not one major Democrat or Republican has declared for president — and neither the polls nor the betting markets can agree on who will.
The 2028 Race Without a Field
Oct 22, 2026 - The first votes of the 2028 race are about 15 months away, and campaign announcements usually land well before that. Yet no major Democrat or Republican has formally declared. One tracker counts 42 potential candidates; the only two who have filed with the FEC are long shots.
That is normal before a midterm. What is unusual is the noise around the silence: governors touring early states, senators “kicking the tires,” a former vice president calling herself undecided. America is caught in a whirlwind of would-be candidates who all seem to have one foot in and one foot out.
The Republicans: an heir apparent who won’t say so
Vice President JD Vance leads GOP primary polling, with 38% to Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s 24% in an October Focaldata/Financial Times survey. President Trump has called Vance the “most likely” nominee. Yet Vance says his focus is the midterms, and Rubio has reportedly told allies he won’t run against him.
Trump has added to the fog, alternating between saying he would “love to” serve again and acknowledging the 22nd Amendment bars it. Meanwhile Sen. Ted Cruz appears eager for a 2016 rematch, and Sen. Rand Paul, Gov. Greg Abbott and others remain in the conversation.
The Democrats: a crowded room, doors half open
The same poll put Kamala Harris first among Democrats at 30%, ahead of Gov. Gavin Newsom at 15% and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pete Buttigieg at 9% each. Other polls this year have crowned Buttigieg, Newsom or Ocasio-Cortez instead.
The hedging is the story:
- Harris said on October 14 she is still undecided.
- Newsom promised to give 2028 serious thought after the midterms, now two weeks away.
- Gretchen Whitmer ruled out a run in May, then reversed hours later: “never say never.”
- Buttigieg, asked in Iowa if he was ruling it out, said “Nope!”
- Jon Ossoff says he is not running, yet markets rank him a top contender.
What the betting markets say
Prediction markets are even less settled than the polls. Traders give Vance roughly a 43% chance at the GOP nomination — the clearest favorite in either party, but short of even odds and down from about 53% on Polymarket in early September. Rubio sits in the mid-to-high teens.
On the Democratic side, no one clears 20%. Ossoff, Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez are effectively tied, with Harris, Shapiro and Buttigieg in single digits. Overall, markets favor Democrats to win the White House, at roughly 58% to 65% — they just can’t agree on who the nominee will be.
| Candidate | Party | Kalshi (%) | Polymarket (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | R | 43 | 44 |
| Marco Rubio | R | 19 | 14 |
| Jon Ossoff | D | 16 | 16 |
| Gavin Newsom | D | 15 | 16 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | D | 14 | 17 |
| Pete Buttigieg | D | 5 | 5 |
Chance of winning their party’s nomination, mid-October 2026 (DeFi Rate). Markets reflect traders’ bets, not voter preference.
Why everyone is hedging
The midterms come first. Declaring before November 3 risks being blamed for distracting from the fight for Congress, or tied to its losses.
Many still hold office. Governors like Newsom and Whitmer leave office in January; Vance and Rubio serve in the administration. An open campaign invites charges of neglecting the job.
The calendar is set; the field is not. Democrats will open with South Carolina on January 22, 2028, then Nevada. Republicans have signaled Iowa and New Hampshire will again go first. Nobody wants to show their hand first, or build an operation last.
What breaks the stalemate
Expect the whirlwind to settle after November 3. Watch the midterm results, early-state staff hires, and whether Trump endorses a successor or revives third-term talk. Until then, voters get a parade of maybes. Within a year, the long lists become real candidates — and we’ll learn who is willing to put both feet in.